Archive for the ‘Economics’ Category

Microfinance and Peer Lending

December 15th 2007

No blog post for a week, perhaps I am not as self important or tenacious as I think I am.

I have been meaning to read Muhammad Younus’s book “Banker to the Poor” for a while, I had not heard of him till he won the Nobel Peace Prize. He helped found the Grameen Bank, a bank that lends small amounts of money to poor people in Bangladesh who have no collateral (called Microfinance for obvious reasons), and later the Grameen Foundation. Access to collateral is obviously really significant in your success; I know a great way to have a guaranteed income of 80k a year (less tax), put a million quid in a savings account at 8%.

Peer Lending is another topic that is becoming popular, particularly as we experience the so called credit crunch. Zopa in the Uk and Prosper.com in the US are interesting ways for lending and borrowing money. This is often described as “cutting out the middle man” but obviously this is just being a middleman that skims rather than grabs. Sometimes you directly loan money to an individual, sometimes the risk is spread for you. This risk spreading reminds me of Collateralized Debt Obligations; the source of much of the cheap credit now available and an accelerant of the recent crunch, also claimed to be a big factor in the supposed Great Moderation we are experiencing (along with supply chain innovations like Just In Time Inventorying). The web is obviously an enabler for this sort of idea and I think the market forces mean users are getting a better deal than they otherwise would. This happened in gambling with BetFair and SpreadFair (which is owned by Cantor Fitzgerald and run out of Canary Wharf, a very good friend of mine works there).

Markets are good (at least sometimes).

A more traditional way for people to access capital and services are non profit organisations like credit unions and friendly societies. I recently joined the Leeds City Credit Union and am pleased to say I got a loan off them at 9% APR to consolidate the credit card debt I still have from my time at university, debt free in 5 years (I am going to overpay and try and clear it in 3). You can access cheaper credit if your credit history is pristine, but my time in India at the beginning of the year after quitting teaching made mine a little tarnished and I do not begrudge them the small difference as all profits are given to members as dividends. They provide a much needed service to less well off people banks could not care less about and help them avoid horrendous door-to-door lenders like Provident. “The Provvy” absolutly disgust me; I got a letter through the door with a picture of a christmas tree and an offer of £500 for only £15 per week. This is for 56 weeks though, so you pay them £840, which is an APR of 183.2% which they are not shy (due obviously to regulation) about telling you on their site. My first instinct was to feel sympathy for people for whom this is the only option, but clearly it never is; go to the credit union or start saving in June for Christmas. I am back onto my standard rant about whether people are undereducated or wilfully careless about their own wellbeing in the long-term in favour of instantaneous gratification, which I hope should stop in adulthood. One shit year while you paid off your loan and one shit year while you saved would allow you to spend twice as much each year, to me that is a no-brainer.

Quite link heavy today, may save you some googling.

Posted by tom under Economics | 2 Comments »

One Laptop Per Child

November 16th 2007

If you have not seen it, go and checkout the OLPC project. Technologically it is superb: The screen is revolutionary, having two display modes (a 800×600 colour display mode and a 1200×900, 200DPI black and white mode that can be used in direct sunlight). The wireless networking can create a mesh to connect children and share any internet access between them all. All the software is Free (as in freedom). You can get hold of one now using give one get one.

I know this will not solve all of the worlds problems, people who have no food to eat or are in a war zone will not benefit from having a neat little laptop. OLPC is not simply a charity project, it is made to be useful to children and low cost (governments all over the world are signed up to buy them). Education can make a real difference to a society once the basic necessities are met.

I saw on the TED blog a talk by Andrew Mwenda on why aid is not the answer to problems in Africa, economic growth is. I agree, particularly after seeing the wonderful presentations by Hans Rosling (first , second) also at TED. Please do watch these as they are inspiring and really show the power of good data to shed light rather than heat on complex situations. Go play with the data yourself at gapminder.org .

Posted by tom under hardware & Economics | No Comments »

Started My Pension

November 8th 2007

Pensions; Not exciting to most people, but you ignore them at your peril.

I started mine this week as my work offered to match my contributions up to 3%of my salary. I was holding off untill I was out of debt, but their contribution means its daft not to start now. Lets say you want £100 in your pot each month, you need to find £50 if your employer matches your contribution. If you put in £39 then the government put in £11 in tax relief (if you pay 22% income tax), ie your contribution is multiplied by 2.5 for free! I asked the chap who administers it for us and there is only a 50% uptake, this is crazy (I accept some people may not be in the UK when they retire)

For those of us who are ambitious, lumping into ISAs until we hit the top rate of tax then transfering to a pension is the optimal way to invest (once you are out of debt, possibly ignoring your mortgage)

Some bits of advice (not rocket science, everyone should know this):

  • Get out of debt! Pay off loans and cards, don’t get new ones. Money Saving Expert will help.
  • Let compound interest work for you, and start early. If your money grows at 8%, it will double every 9 years (5 doublings, in 45 years). At 10%, it will double about every 7 (6 doublings in 42 years). See double calculator. So 2% more growth per year leaves you with twice as much money at the end! I know this does not account for inflation, but we could just change it to 8% real (ie with inflation subtracted) growth. See Fidelity’s Calculator for a more realistic picture of your retirement pot.
  • Buy funds, not individual stocks. All the news you have is old, forget trying to beat the traders who punt by the nanosecond - you cannot win (its not clear they really do, read A Random Walk Down Wall Street )
  • Don’t be too risk averse, look at Malkiel’s sleeping scale (percentages are expected returns):
    • Bank accounts: Semi-comatose, 2 to 3 percent. No risk. Does not keep up with inflation.
    • Money markets and cash deposits: Long afternoon naps, 3 to 5 percent. No risk. Will keep up with inflation.
    • Corporate bonds: An occasional dream, 8 to 8.5 percent. Small risk if held to maturity. Inflation safe.
    • Blue chip stock: Some tossing and turning, 9 percent. Moderate to great risk, depending on holding time.
    • Aggressive growth stocks: Nightmares but long term rest, 9 to 12 percent. Substantial risk, but good inflation hedge.
    • Real estate: Vivid dreams, Same as common stocks.
    • Gold and other Commodities: Insomnia, Cannot predict return
  • Stay in for the long haul: The UK stock market has grown at 11% per annum on average over the last 100 years, beating inflation and bonds, even with the great depression, black Wednesday and the dot-com bubble thrown in. Over 20 years, stocks beat cash 98% of the time. See Motley Fool for a nice graph and more advice on investing. Look at these (US) ranges in average returns for common stocks over the last 50 years.
    • One Year 52.6 to -26.5 %
    • Five Years 23.9 to -2.4 %
    • Ten Years 17.6 to 1.2 %
    • Fifteen Years 16.8 to 4.3 %
    • Twenty Years 14.6 to 6.5 %
    • Twenty Five Years 11.2 to 7.9 %

    See how the volatility dies down over time.

I want to retire early and lead a nice life, starting now is all I need to do.

Posted by tom under investing & Economics | 1 Comment »